The India-US relations are witnessing some transformational changes. The joint statement signed during the recent visit by the Indian prime minister to the US states that their 'new engagement' is a logical recognition of the emerging reality in which India must assume a greater role in regional and global affairs concurrent with its increasing economic and geo-political influence.

As the new India-US "order" promises to deepen engagement between the two countries, this special report analyses the diplomatic initiative through the prism of regional stability and security.

Will the US, India, and China as the major players in the region leverage on the advantages of co-operation or will they go the way of confrontation in a bid to establish supremacy and in the process endanger stability? The US would obviously use the emerging new relationship with India to serve its geopolitical interests in Asia, and for developing India to some extent as a counterweight to China.  But embedded in the new US approach is a string of strategic challenges, which this report seeks to analyze.  This report was prepared after a month long exercise involving extensive 'Scenario Gaming' of wide ranging geopolitical scenarios, evaluation of the outcomes and their impact using Game Theory tools.

Excerpts from the report

...India's need to diversify its energy sources would bring it to South West Asia and Central Asia.  Clearly, India-US interests on energy diverge and the new framework of India-US cooperation has narrowed India's elbowroom significantly.  China too has stakes in Iran and Kazakhtstan; the latter is a potential oil and gas supplier to the US. Control over energy supply has made these regions crucial to the energy seeking US, China and India.....

...In a scenario where India fails to deliver, the emerging relationship is likely to be severely tested.  If the US pulls out of the deal, it could deprive India of many economic and technology benefits and relegate India's status to that of a strategically inferior "nuclear pariah", denying its claim to playing a more influential role in global politics. This will hurt India's strategic interests and dent its ambitions over a long term......