Risk intelligence (17/03/2021) - Indonesia
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UPDATE FROM COVID-19 REPORT ON 18/02/2021
MINISTER SAYS GOVERNMENT WILL ALLOW IDUL FITRI EXODUS, DESPITE COVID-19 OUTBREAK
The Indonesian government has indicated that it will allow people to travel to their hometowns for Idul Fitri this year in the annual mass exodus known as ‘mudik,’ despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Minister of Transportation Budi Karya Sumadi told a parliamentary commission meeting yesterday that the government will not prohibit people from traveling for Idul Fitri and that authorities will “tighten” measures to ensure adherence to health protocols.
The ministry has released seven policies for Idul Fitri that include increased monitoring of health protocols on public transport, along with enhanced security at airports, bus and train stations. Sumadi predicts that a high number of travellers will participate in mudik this year as COVID-19 tests are becoming cheaper and more widely available, including at airports, bus and train stations countrywide.
Sumadi also said that the ministry will work with the national COVID-19 task force to carry out contact tracing of travellers.
In contrast to the minister’s comments, the COVID-19 task force chief Doni Monardo said that the government has not made a final decision about the Idul Fitri exodus this year.
Hill & Associates Assessment
The mass exodus could set Indonesia back further in its fight against COVID-19 if authorities allow people to travel with few restrictions.
Idul Fitri is due to fall on Thursday 13 and Friday 14 May, with a collective leave day scheduled for Wednesday 12 May.
The homecoming journey is an important annual tradition for millions of Muslims in Indonesia. An estimated 33 million people took part in the 2019 exodus prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and in Jakarta it is estimated that around 2.5 million people leave the capital each year during the fasting month of Ramadan, prior to Idul Fitri.
Government officials have cited declining cases as evidence that Indonesia is making progress in the fight against COVID-19, however testing rates have also fallen.
Mixed public health messaging could also lead to poor compliance with health protocols for mudik.
Last year, the government banned travel two weeks before Idul Fitri, a move that was criticised by public health experts because hundreds of thousands of people had already departed.
Epidemiologists have called on the government to implement a ‘mudik’ travel ban this year, citing a higher risk of transmission following the discovery of COVID-19 variants that are potentially more infectious.
Minister of Health Budi Gunadi Sadikin recently warned that the annual exodus could result in a 40 percent spike in COVID-19 cases. The Indonesian Doctors Association (IDI) has also warned the government against relaxing restrictions for Idul Fitri due to the risk of triggering a new peak in cases.
Authorities are also concerned that people may view the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines as having reduced the risk of transmission and as a result will relax precautionary behaviours.