Risk Intelligence (19/02/2021) - Thailand civil unrest
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CIVIL UNREST ESCALATION
In a significant change of course, the Ratsadon protest movement last week vowed to intensify their protests after four of their leaders were sent into pre-trial detention on royal defamation charges.
In the first major demonstration this year, about 1,000 protesters gathered at the Skywalk near Pathumwan intersection in Bangkok on Wednesday, 10 February to demand the release of four activists remanded in custody on lese-majeste charges, including human rights lawyer Arnon Nampa, and student leader Parit Chiwarak. Police in riot gear briefly scuffled with protesters.
Activist leaders have declared the rally a resumption of last year’s street demonstrations, which were disrupted by a second wave of coronavirus infections.
Generally, the protest movement should be expected to mobilise several thousand supporters, but it remains to be seen if it can generate the massive turnout it achieved at the height of the protests in late 2020.
Points of note
Concerns over violent confrontations rose after more than 20 police officers were injured in clashes with activists near a Bangkok shrine on 13 February, where protesters had moved after staging a rally at the Democracy Monument. Protesters threw paint at police and several small bangs were heard during the protest. Police detained eight people for questioning. Protest leaders subsequently vowed to urge their supporters to continue following non-violent principles and avoid unnecessary confrontations, but the ongoing involvement of protest marshal groups, which have a propensity for violence, cast doubt on the effectiveness of these measures.
Please be reminded that last weekend, pro-democracy activists set a deadline of seven days for the government to release four detained top activist leaders, failing which they call on the people to “join together” for a large rally on Saturday 20 February at the royal Sanam Luang field north of Central Bangkok. The exact time and location will be made public no earlier than Friday.
Parliament is also scheduled to vote that day to complete the censure debate, and protests could be held near the building as well.
• Sanam Luang is a sensitive area due to its royal connotations
• Expect heightened police presence, physical barricades and traffic diversions
• Congestion and other localized disruption are very likely
• Clashes between protesters and the police and between opposing groups are possible
• Police are highly likely to make arrests, and forcibly disperse protesters if they attempt to breach restricted areas
• Protesters may seek to march to other local destinations in defiance of police instructions
• The gathering may breach COVID-19 protocols
• We advise you / your personnel to maintain an elevated security posture, and to avoid Sanam Luang and the vicinity of the Parliament building in Dusit on Saturday