Risk intelligence (19/03/2021) - Thailand
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CIVIL UNREST UPDATE
Tensions are again running high in Thailand following the announcement of the Ratsadon protest movement in mid-February to intensify their protests after four of their key leaders were sent into pre-trial detention on royal defamation charges. Their continued detention and the increasing number of key activists who face jail time over lese-majeste or sedition charges has become the main rallying cry for the protesters, suggesting that momentum has shifted in favour of the government. Generally, the protest movement can be expected to mobilise several thousand supporters, but it is becoming increasingly unlikely that it will be able to generate the massive turnout it achieved at the height of the unrest in late 2020, before a second coronavirus outbreak brought an end to the protests.
Concerns over violent confrontations arose following a series of clashes between protesters and security forces during protests in Bangkok throughout February and March, which resulted in dozens of arrests and injured on both sides. These concerns were again fuelled during a violent protest on Sunday, 28 February, when an estimated 2,000 demonstrators marched from the Victory Monument to the nearby barracks of the army’s 1st Infantry Regiment, which doubles as the residence of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha. Police for the first time fired rubber bullets at protesters and used tear gas and water cannons to disperse the crowd. Ten protesters and 26 police officers were injured in the clashes, while 22 protesters were arrested.
The violence has prompted pro-democracy campaigners to reassess their “leaderless strategy”, which calls for the decentralised and spontaneous organisation of rallies and flash mobs. While the protest on 28 February was called by the Free Youth group, which has rebranded itself as Restart Democracy (Redem) following a backlash over its promotion of communist ideology, no leaders of the group were present during the demonstration, and key decisions were made by opinion polls on Telegram, an encrypted messaging app. This clearly contributed to the chaotic scenes seen at the protest and enabled small groups of radical activists to instigate violence against the police while others were trying to defuse the situation. While some activist leaders have criticised the haphazard nature of such protests and reiterated the importance of non-violent principles, it is unclear if those calls will have any effect.
Anti-government protests resumed amid tight security on Saturday 6 March at four locations in Bangkok and Nonthaburi, including the Criminal Court on Ratchadaphisek Road. The gatherings were peaceful but tense following the arrest of 48 We Volunteer (WeVo) protest guard members, including their leader Piyarat "Toto" Chongthep, at a shopping mall earlier that day. A crowd of protesters subsequently blocked a police convoy and managed to force open one of the police vehicles, freeing 27 detainees, who later turned themselves in.
The detention of guard leader “Toto” and several of his associates, who were reportedly found in possession of large quantities of throwing objects, including catapults, nuts, glass balls, ping pong bombs and plastic bags of pickled fish when they were arrested undoubtedly raises the potential for a violent escalation. Many protest guard groups recruit their members from vocational schools who frequently engage in turf wars with rivals and have a propensity for low level violence. The arrest of this particular leader could prompt radical members among these groups to seek a violent confrontation with police. Given the fact that almost all top activist leaders remain in detention, calls for calm and non-violence are unlikely to be heeded.
At present, the current trajectory of the conflict does point to a more direct confrontation between the police and the protesters. Both parties have shown that they are willing and able to use force and/or violence. Police have used tear gas and water cannons laced with irritants against the demonstrators, who in turn used slingshots to fire metal bolts and glass marbles at riot police, and splashed oil paint on officers' faces. The use of rubber bullets, which are considered a less-than-lethal weapon but can cause serious injuries, indicates that police response has become more pro-active and assertive, and security forces have demonstrated that they will use non-lethal force to protect royal, government and other key installations. The authorities will likely erect 50-150m security cordons around key royal and government installations. Police are highly likely to make arrests and forcibly disperse protesters if they attempt to breach restricted areas.
Planned protests and possible flash points
Both opposition activists and supporters of the government and the monarchy are likely to stage additional protests in the coming days and weeks in Bangkok. Many gatherings will be announced at short notice and are likely to take place in the late afternoon or early evening near Bangkok Mass Transit System (BTS) or MRT stations, major intersections, government installations, and public squares, parks and buildings, including Bangkok’s shopping district. Rallies in front of foreign embassies are possible at any time. Details of rally sites and times will be announced on the group's other social media platforms at short notice, likely about 24hrs in advance.
Attendance at these events is expected to range from several hundred to several thousand people. Expect heightened security at all public transportation hubs, particularly at BTS stations, and an increased police presence, physical barricades and traffic diversions in the vicinity of known protest sites. Severe traffic disruption in areas affected by protests should be expected. Protesters may seek to march to other local destinations in defiance of police instructions, increasing the risk of congestion and other localized disruption.
Please see this map for an overview of potential flashpoints in Bangkok, which includes the following areas:
• Sanam Luang
• Bangkok Remand Prison
• The National Assembly near Kiak Kai intersection
• The Constitutional Court
• The Thai Summit Building on New Phetchaburi Road
• Lumphini Park
• Ratchaprasong intersection
• The BTS Skywalk near Pathumwan intersection
• The Victory Monument
• The Bangkok Art & Culture Centre
• The Democracy Monument on Ratchadamnoen Road
• Siam Square
• The Education Ministry on Ratchadamnoen Nok Road
• The Crown Property Bureau
• The Criminal Court on Ratchadaphisek Road